Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Elections 2016 - A prediction

It seems like the 2016 US presidential election campaign has been going on forever. To say that it has been high drama and unprecedented is stating the obvious, but how do you not say it? The success of Donald Trump (at least so far) is clearly the one that defies all conventional logic, but that is not always a bad thing. However, when bucking the trend creates the prospect of having a demagogue occupy the White House for at least four years, it is a bad thing.

We are just under five weeks from the election and while Hillary Clinton has once again started to pull away after the first debate, there are likely more ups and downs in store for us before it is all done. Watching Trump in the first debate was like watching a caricature of him. He said things and acted in all the negative ways that his critics have accused him of doing. What I find amazing about his supporters are that most of them acknowledge that the reasons that he is falling behind are his bizarre and inconsistent statements, his pettiness, and not to mention, his general ignorance about most things that a president should be aware of. However, while conceding these points, they simultaneously bemoan the fact that he does not have the discipline to control these impulses.  All the while ignoring the fact that the reason for such terrible behavior is that, he is inconsistent, petty, and ignorant. These are manifestations of real character issues that make him completely unsuitable to lead the country.  The double standard is well at work - any missteps from Hillary (personal email server, really?) are proof positive of her unsuitability, but for Trump, he is either "telling it like it is" or that he is "not a career politician."
At this point in the campaign (& perhaps for some time now), it doesn't matter what either candidate does or says - their respective bases are dug-in and determined.  I don't believe there are any actual "undecided" voters out there - just folks who are so disdainful of both candidates that they cannot actually say who they are going to vote for. Setting aside Trump's hardcore supporters (and I do impute base motives to at least a fair number of them), I cannot believe that any sentient person would actually believe that Trump is qualified to be president. When push comes to shove (as it will when they are standing in the polling booth), they will not vote for Trump. It's not even going to be close - Hillary will win in a landslide. Wishful thinking on my part? Perhaps.  But, doesn't sanity have to prevail at some point? 

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