Thursday, November 3, 2016

The 2016 Elections - A Voter Guide: The CA Propositions

The Cubs ended their wait for a World Series title, so there is still hope that the nightmare of the 2016 elections may yet come to an end. In the meantime, we still have to wade through a raft of propositions. There are so many that I am going to break my guide into two parts - this one is for the state-wide measures and the second one will be for the San Diego ones.  Here goes.

Prop 51: $9 Billion educational bond: A General Obligation (GO) bond to pay for schools and community colleges. A local bond would be preferable, but our schools need all the help they can get. Vote YES.

Prop 52: Changes to hospital fee program: Hospitals in CA currently pay a "fee" in order to trigger matching Federal funds for MediCal. However, our legislators have diverted a part of this money to the general fund. This ballot measure will put an end to that and also extend the fee program indefinitely.  There is some danger in specifying too precisely how each dollar must be used, but this "diversion" seems a bit more egregious than usual. Vote YES.

Prop 53: Voter approval for issuing revenue bonds greater than $2 Billion: Ca issues two kinds of bonds - General Obligation (GO) bonds and revenue bonds. GO bonds always require voter approval (see prop 51) and are repaid using the general fund, i.e., state taxes.  Revenue bonds are for funding a particular project and are typically repaid by some fee on the project itself (e.g., tolls from a road built using a revenue bond.) This prop was largely pushed and supported by one couple and seems like an unnecessary hassle. Vote NO.

Prop 54: Public display of legislative bills prior to vote: This measure would require that a bill cannot be voted on unless it has been presented to the public for at least 72 hours.  There are other aspects to this prop, but this is the main event. It seems like a good idea (after all, what is the rush to vote on a bill given how long it takes for it to get that far?), but it is curious that the entire funding comes from one source - a billionaire who clearly has some vested interest in getting this passed. The forced "waiting period" is also an opportunity for lobbyists to work on changing lawmakers' minds.  Even so, I think the greater transparency that this allows is sufficiently useful to tip the balance in its favor. Vote YES.

Prop 55: Extension of the Prop 30 income tax increase: Prop 30 had "temporarily" tacked on an extra 1% of income tax for incomes above a certain level (applicable to about 1.5% of Californians.) This prop now proposes to extend that "temporary" measure by 12 years.  While I would typically be all for soaking the wealthy in order to pay for education and healthcare (as this prop promises to do), this smells like a bait-n-switch: Get a tax increase passed on the promise of it being temporary and after people are inured to it, slowly make it permanent. Vote NO.

Prop 56: Raise state excise tax by $2 on a pack of cigarettes: The current tax is $0.87 per pack and this measure would raise that to $2.87, with equivalent increases on other tobacco products. Heavy opposition from cigarette makers. Vote YES.

Prop 57: Parole for non-violent criminals and juvenile: There are too many people in US prisons and the situation in CA is bad enough that in 2011 the Supreme Court ruled that they violated the eighth amendment (cruel and unusual punishment). The 3-strikes law and mandatory sentencing rules have led to way too many unnecessary imprisonments. Vote YES.

Prop 58: Allow non-English languages in schools: This essentially repeals prop 227 (from 1998) that required "English immersion" in schools. There is a certain appeal to "language as identity," but there is a larger measure of imperialism in enforcing English as the sole language. Vote YES.

Prop 59: Legislators must oppose Citizens United: Citizens United has (in)famously unleashed large amounts of money into the political process and I would readily support any effort to overturn it. This one though is destined to be largely symbolic in that there is very little the legislators of one state, however motivated, can do to get rid of it. But, we might as well send a message about what Californians think about this bone headed 5-4 Supreme Court decision.  Vote YES.

Prop 60: Require use of condoms in adult films: I can't quite figure out why this is the case, but there is a lot of opposition to this measure, including both the Democratic and Republican parties (the only measure with this distinction.) I am just going to go with the preponderance of opposition to this.  Vote NO.

Prop 61: Price controls on prescription drugs: The actual restrictions are a bit indirect - the requirement is that when the state pays for prescription drugs (via MediCal, etc) it shall pay no more than the price paid by the VA system (whose prices are negotiated by the federal government.) This ballot is creating some history of its own - it is on track to be the most expensive ballot measure ever - in all of the US, with nearly $110 million raised by opponents of the prop. Most of that, not surprisingly, is from various drug makers.  While I am reflexively inclined to support something that the drug companies hate so much, there are actually many subtleties to consider. It is not automatic that this measure will lead to cost savings and could potentially backfire on the VA system (but I doubt it.) However, that $110 M keeps looming large. Vote YES.

Prop 62 (Repeal the death penalty) and Prop 66 (Keep the death penalty): These are dueling, incompatible propositions. If both pass, then the one with the most 'yes' votes prevails. This is an easy one for me - I have long been opposed to capital punishment. I don't think it is effective and smacks too much of revenge, which no civilized society should permit. From a purely practical point of view, it is also terribly expensive to put somebody on death row in the US. Vote YES on 62 and NO on 66.

Prop 63: Prohibit some large capacity ammunition magazines and require background checks for certain firearm purchases: Another easy one for me. Vote YES.

Prop 64: Legalize recreational use of marijuana. This is clearly going to get a lot of attention on election day. I have generally been puzzled that alcohol is legal, but marijuana is not. Smoking and chewing tobacco continue to be legal. After all the "Just Say No" and "War on drugs" campaigns it seems counter-intuitive to contemplate legalizing some drugs. But that's mostly Pavlovian and the evidence (what there is of it) points the other way - whether it is Portugal or Colorado. Vote YES.

Prop 65: Allocation of funds from sale of reusable grocery bags. This is one half of another paired proposition (the other one being 67, in this case.) This one states that the proceeds from the sale of reusable grocery bags (made necessary by the ban on plastic bags) should be earmarked for specific environmental purposes. This is overreach - banning plastic bags is a fine idea, but why should the stores be prevented from keeping the proceeds from any bags they sell in their stead? Consumers are free to bring their own bags, anyway. Vote NO.

Prop 67: Ban single-use plastic bags: There is a bit more to this than just the ban on plastic grocery bags, but that's the essential part. No mystery to my position here. Vote YES.

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